April 30th, 6:06 pm by Lior Alkalay
(eToro Blog) Not too long ago, Gold prices had surged higher, heading up towards $1,930, with seemingly no end in sight, and investors and analysts alike fully expected that a $2,000 record was in the bag. It didn’t quite work out that way, as the shiny stuff it seems is yesterday’s news. Investors are selling off gold like it were toxic, moving instead into assets like equities and bonds – you know, assets that actually pay. Over the past few months, gold has lost 15% of its value, dropping $280 per ounce.
There are plenty of good arguments against holding Gold and only a very few that support it. Gold bears argue that as growth picks up and the economy runs pretty much neck-and-neck with inflation so it simply makes sense to hold corporate bonds or stocks, even growth-linked energy futures; anything but gold which pays next to nothing and is already retreating off of those record highs. And this is all going down while equities’ earnings per share are exponentially multiplying, and moving higher and higher, not just in the U.S., but in Europe and Asia too, which are still far off their peaks.
Gold is now trading close to record lows, and there is a growing sense of optimism among investors’ outlook for global growth, thus some could argue that gold isn’t all that precious any longer. But is that really the case? Could Gold be losing its luster? Gold bulls say that that is an impossibility; a drop in gold prices is a gift – an opportunity for traders to buy on the dips and stockpile.
I’ve had years of experience in analyzing gold and precious metals, and I understand that Gold patterns aren’t always clear, and its weakness in fact is rather deceiving. But to find a valid argument in support of Gold, you have to go directly to the source, to the place that Gold investors flock namely GOLD SPDR ETF, Gold’s largest exchange traded fund; and where gold is physically held. There, a great deal of light can be shed on exactly where we are now in Gold’s cyclical demand.

(Data Source: Thomson Reuters)
In the above chart, SPDR ETF’s gold prices (GLD SPDR) are shown in blue, while the average volume in USD millions is shown in green. What can be seen from the chart is an interesting pattern; each time the GLD volume spikes higher there is a close correlation with a spike in GLD, which is, for all intents and purposes, the price of Gold. More importantly, as volumes bottom it is a strong indication of the start of another bullish cycle. To me, the pattern is clear; each time the volume hits bottom they move higher, when they spike the new spike is even higher. Consistently gold prices are being pushed up to new record prices. How do I explain this pattern? Once you understand the dynamics of Gold, it’s rather simple: when interest in Gold rises, volumes spike and gold prices are pushed higher. If volumes are too high that suggests that Gold speculators pushed the price into over bought territory, then volumes will bottom out. The chart suggests two clear possibilities: Gold is under-owned or its fundamentals have been under-estimated.
What of the pattern now? It is clear that volumes are bottoming out, and are consistent with the generally rising volume lows. Gold SPDR’s insights are clear: Gold is bottoming and preparing for another spike. And what of that gold spike? You may recall that I had suggested not too long ago that a Gold spike might “spook” central bankers, causing them to retreat a bit. Well, I still believe that could happen. Now, Gold buying makes a lot of sense, as it would give investors another hedge against a market quickly becoming overheated.
Only a week ago, prior to the release of data which proved that the U.S. and U.K. economies were slipping backing, trying to make a legitimate case for Gold could have put me on shaky ground. But my how things change in a week’s time. Growth is clearly ebbing, and there is a renewed sense that central banks will have to respond to that, and with that comes the possibility that inflation might out-pace growth and with a good case made for higher inflation you also have a valid argument in Gold’s favor.
I believe that if we see a weekly and sustained break of $1,700, it will confirm GLD’s insights. Whether it will transmute into a price spike above recent records remains to be seen, but it is clear that Gold prices are getting ready to move into the $1,800 to $1,900 range.
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This news item was republished from eToro Forex news website
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