Daily Forex News

February 9th, 5:00 am by Benzinga

Stocks are up in Europe, with the FTSE 100 slightly in the green and the MSCI All Country World Index  up a third of a percent as the market reverses its attitude towards Greece thanks to progress on a bailout plan with creditors. Investors may also be looking to reverse bearish moves in European markets earlier this week, as hope replaces gloom, prompting BlackRock mogul Larry Fink to encourage investors to go one hundred percent into equities.

Stocks may also be up thanks to last afternoon’s revelation that consumer credit rose by $19.3 billion in December, a surprising reverse of the deleveraging trend that had suggested that consumer consumption would remain sluggish as unemployment stayed high and wages stagnated in America. Analysts had expected an increase of around $7.7 billion, so the results are more than double expectations. The greater use of credit may hint at greater consumer confidence, which should translate into higher spending and a recovery to the retail and financial sectors.
Revolving credit rose by $2.76 billion in a sign that consumers were more willing to use credit cards to fund their holiday shopping. The news comes after some credit companies reported lower charge-off rates in recent months.
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February 8th, 6:09 pm by Eddie

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February 8th, 5:00 am by Benzinga

France had the largest trade gap ever in 2011, with imports exceeding exports by €69.6 billion ($91 billion) for the year, higher than the €51.5 billion ($67.6 billion) shortfall of 2010.

Last year marks the tenth straight year for a shortfall in imports for the European economy, as exports fell 0.3 percent.

The gap contrasts with the country’s eastern neighbor, which has become an exporting powerhouse since the adoption of the euro. German exports rose 126 percent from 2000 to 2010. Italy has also seen exports gain by 72 percent, while France saw only a 50 percent increase in outgoing trade.

Trade Minister Pierre Lellouche said in a press conference that the shortage was due to competition with other European economies. “The market share we’ve lost over the past 10 years has been lost to Europeans. The problem is at home, it’s not abroad. It’s up to us to do reforms.”

The juxtaposition of foreign and domestic trade within the eurozone again puts light on the euro and whether it remains a sustainable economic and political policy to maintain a unified currency amongst a federation of separate sovereign states who compete with one another when it comes to trade. While France struggles with a decade of lackluster trade, Germany is enjoying a surplus, which Lellouche says is the result of “work” it began 12 years ago, which he says France hasn’t considered since the 1960′s.

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February 7th, 10:37 pm by Sam

(eToro Blog) Wall Street rallied higher on reports that Greek leaders were close to agreeing on austerity measures that is a requirement for the nation to get a second rescue package. Several news organizations reported that government officials were preparing the final documents that would allow Greece to qualify for a 130 billion Euro rescue package. The document will be presented to leaders of the three main political parties in Greece. The news also lifted the EURUSD above the 1.3200 level for the first time since December 12^th.

OpenBook top trader Gavinwright had great performance today with his trading on the EURUSD. This guru started buying into EURUSD near 1.3130 and rode the rally all the way to 1.3250. The EURUSD bounced off support around 1.3100 and broke through support at 1.3200. OpenBook trader Gavinwright recognized this opportunity and booked massive profits on his trades. The trader is up 13% for this week and up 103% in the last thirty days. In his own words, this trader likes to scalp during trending markets and also does some range trading. The trader has 563 copiers and 1815 followers so far on OpenBook.

Wall Street traded in the green today with the Dow up 32 points, the Nasdaq up 6 points and the S&P 500 up 2 points. Traders on OpenBook are primarily long the Dow (DJ30) with average limits at 13,000 and stops at 12,700.

With the U.S. economic calendar light today, focus turned to Fed chairman Ben Bernanke’s testimony in Congress. He urged Senators to resolve debate over tax cuts in order to remove uncertainty. He also agreed that growth would slow to 1.1% in 2014 if Bush era tax cuts are allowed to expire. The issues of taxes are at the core of reducing the federal deficit which is projected to run above $1 trillion for the fourth straight year.

OpenBook trader drangie who has become a favorite to watch trading the SPX500 continued with her scalping strategy today. This trader likes to trade the SPX500 in the pre-U.S. session and closed 5 profitable trades early this morning with profits on average around 4%. The trader is now devoting 82% of her portfolio to trading the SPX500. The trader was buying the SPX500 below 1,340 and looking for opportunities to short as the SPX500 traded above 1,340. The trader has 2 copiers and 35 followers so far on OpenBook.

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February 7th, 5:00 am by Benzinga

In Britain, they do not joke around. The former chief executive officer of the Royal Bank of Scotland, Fred Goodwin, was stripped of his knighthood by Queen Elizabeth II Wednesday as punishment for his role in the 2008 financial crisis.

The title was originally given to the banker in 2004 for his services rendered to the banking world. He will be the 35th person to be deprived of the title Sir since 1995.

The RBS, which had to receive 45.5 billion pounds worth of aid during 2008 and 2009, has been identified as one of the main drivers behind the 2008 financial crisis. Throughout the crisis and the events leading up to it, Goodwin was the bank’s primary decision maker.

During the crisis of 2008, the RBS and Lloyds TSB received billions of pounds in taxpayer money from Her Majesty’s Treasury. In exchange, the British government was given shares in the two troubled banks.

By the end of 2008, the RBS had lost a record 24.1 billion pounds, with Goodwin announcing in October of that year that he would be stepping down as CEO. In 2009, losses – though still significant – dropped to 3.6 billion pounds.

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February 6th, 9:22 pm by Sam

(eToro Blog) Wall Street was faced with a struggle today Greece cast a shadow of gloom over the U.S. session. Markets retreated today with the Dow down 41 points, the Nasdaq down 8 points and the S&P 500 down 3 points at the time of writing this report. Traders on OpenBook are primarily long on SPX500 with average limits at 1,350 and stops at 1,320.

Despite the bearish sentiment on Wall Street, OpenBook traders are primarily bullish on SPX500. OpenBook trader drangie was busy this morning scalping short profits on the SPX500 in the European session. The trader switched to becoming a SPX500 bull last week and closed several profitable long positions on the SPX500 with gains between 2% and 5%. The traders started buying SPX500 near 1,336 and closed near 1,342. The trader has 2 copiers and 35 followers so far on OpenBook.

With the U.S. economic calendar light on events, markets are taking their cue from developments in Europe. Talks between Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papdemos and leaders of the three opposition parties were delayed until Tuesday. Greece has to come to an agreement on new austerity measures before it gets the second bailout package. French President Sarkozy and German Chancellor Merkel said that time is running out for Greece to reach an agreement with the troika. The troika refers to European Union, IMF and ECB.

Federal Reserve policy maker James Bullard said that the U.S. housing market has already hit bottom. Bullard who is a hawk is against the current Fed policy of keeping interest rates low until late 2014. Bullard believes that low interest rates hurt savers and older Americans who rely on interest payments.

OpenBook trader aaronsw was also bullish on the SPX500 and used the dip in the markets to add to his SPX500 long exposure. Looking at this trader’s open positions, the trade is targeting SPX500 to reach 1,373. The trader has closed closed several long SPX500 positions in the past few days with gains as high as 48.33%. The trader allocates significant portion of their portfolio (about 34%) to trading SPX500. Besides SPX500, the trader also trades Oil and FRA40. The trader has been watching the $100 per barrel price level on Oil. The trader has been going long as oil prices fall below $100 and going short as oil prices trade above $100 a barrel.

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February 6th, 5:00 am by Benzinga

Economists are expecting employment numbers to gain again in January, after 200,000 jobs were added to the U.S. economy in December, according to a Bloomberg survey. Analysts on average expected 140,000 jobs to be added to the economy, despite disappointing consumer spending in recent months.

However, increased employment in manufacturing is expected as international demand eclipses capacity. Caterpillar is expected to increase its personnel thanks to expansion of manufacturing in Texas and North Carolina.

While private jobs are expected to rise in January, the numbers are expected to be lower than in December due to seasonal trends. Temporary workers in December will be laid off in January, if they weren’t already before the new year, which is leading some economists to wonder if the Labor Department’s data will accommodate for the swings in temporary worker numbers.

The optimism may be premature. The Federal Reserve is expecting high unemployment to persist, which was a primary motivation in keeping lending rate low for the next three years. The unprecedented and clear signal that short-term bond rates will stay near zero until late 2014 was the result of Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s  belief that “we still have a long way to go before the labor market can be said to be operating normally,” as he told the House Budget Committee in Washington yesterday.

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February 5th, 7:38 pm by David Becker

(eToro Blog) US equities continued to assist Openbook traders with long US equity index positions.  Last week’s highlighted trader Petra09 continued to ride the momentum, notching up a 25% increase on one of his positions in the Dow Industrial index.  His 3-month track record of solid performance in the Index space includes an 88.8% return over the past three months, which deserves the attention of traders who are looking to copy US index traders.

Markets always have multiple view points and many continue to try to pick a top near resistance levels on riskier assets.  Guru trader Maximus24876, was considering placing a short S&P 500 Index position on Thursday ahead of Friday’s non-farm payrolls report.  When asked about his outlook by one of his followers, trader Chriss100, Maximus24876 replied that he believes that a reversal is coming. He went on to state that today (Thursday) is the beginning of a new risk averse move.

Maximus24876 had a rocky month in January, but has shown solid results during the past 6 and 12 months with returns of 41.3% and 692.1% respectively.  This trader has 2398 followers and 233 copiers, and uses US indexes to express his views nearly 15% of the time.

US markets grinded lower during the first part of the week, but received a boost on Wednesday when ADP and Macro Employment Advisors released in line private employment. The in-line number gave bullish traders hope that Friday’s government number would give the market a boost.

The solid ADP data was followed by a blowout Non-farm Payroll number which also included a better than expected employment rate.  The number of jobs that were filled in January jumped to 243,000, much better than the average estimate of 125,000.  Most analysts also forecast that the employment rate would tick up to the 8.6% level, and were surprised by the decline to 8.3%.  The US economy is obviously gaining traction which could lead to further increases in US stock indexes.

Technically, the major indexes broke out to the upside.  The Nasdaq 100 gapped open above 2500, and has cleared weakly resistance as the index made an 11 year high.  Support on the Nasdaq is seen near the old highs at 2440.  The S&P 500 also pushed higher and also experience a bullish golden cross (the 50-day moving average crossing the 200-day moving average) in the middle of the week.  The strong momentum should continue to allow bullish Openbook traders like Petra09 to reap profits.

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February 3rd, 9:33 pm by Sam

(eToro Blog) Wall Street rallied on the U.S. Non Farm Payrolls report which showed that 243K jobs were created in the month of January. The unemployment rate dropped to lowest level in 3 years at 8.3%. The data beat analyst expectations and boosted U.S. Dollar bulls and stock markets. The December data was also revised up to 203k from the initial 200k reported. The economy also added jobs in almost every sector such as professional services, retail, health care, restaurants further highlighting that the recovery is not specific to one sector. President Obama’s administration cheered the news as positive job growth increases Obama’s chances of winning the Presidential elections.

OpenBook trader Petra09 is ending the week with an impressive return of 22% for the week. The trader who is up 50% for the month trades primarily in the indices such as DJ30 (38.7% allocation), GER30 (19.7% allocation) and FRA40 (7.2% allocation). The trader also allocates 20% of portfolio to trading commodities. The trader had a good run today as they were able to close several DJ30 positions near 12,800 after the NFP announcement. The trader booked profits as high as 30% on these DJ30 positions. The trader also closed a few GER30 positions with gains between 38% – 40%. The trader does use high risk strategies so that should be kept in mind. This trader does not trade currencies much and should be considered by those who are looking to diversify away from currencies.

The ISM services PMI rose in January to the highest level seen in 11 months. The index rose to 56.8% from 53.0% in December. The new orders index rose 4.8 points. The Nasdaq broke above the 2,900 level and the Nasdaq hit 2,889 level which is the highest seen in over a decade. At the time of writing this report, the Dow was up 136 points, the Nasdaq was up 40 points and the S&P 500 was up 16 points at the time of writing this report. Traders on OpenBook are primarily long the Dow (DJ30) with average limits at 12,900 and stops at 12,650.

OpenBook trader Carlalee also had a profitable day today closing a DJ30 position with 35% gain. This trader likes scalping the DJ30 and Gold. The trader allocates 52% of portfolio to trading Gold and has been buying Gold from $1700 an ounce. The trader is not a long term trader and scalps 5% to 10% gain on a daily basis.

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February 3rd, 5:02 pm by Barbara Zigah

(eToro Blog)The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported earlier that January’s non-farms payroll data showed the creation of 243,000 new jobs. Analysts polled ahead of the release were forecasting an increase of only 150,000 new jobs. December’s data was revised to 203,000 new jobs. Notably, the unemployment rate fell again, this time to 8.3%, even as analysts’ expectations called for the rate to remain unchanged.

On Wednesday, ADP had reported that only 170,000 new non-farms jobs were created in December, well off the consensus forecast of 185,000. That, along with the Federal Reserve’s decision to extend the duration of its ultra low interest rates through 2014, has significantly weakened the U.S. Dollar over the past several days.

Quite a few OpenBook traders were confident that today’s labor data would continue its upward trend and meet or even beat expectations, and traders had been shorting the EUR/USD pair in anticipation.

Just ahead of the announcement sentiment on the OpenBook had been bullish and the EUR/USD pair was trading higher at 1.3172, took a quick dive a few minutes afterward toward the day’s opening price them promptly rebounded. It took a full 20 minutes before the pair lost steam and headed into negative territory; as of this writing the pair is trading lower at 1.3103 and sentiment has turned bearish.

OpenBook guru pyruss, who had been profitably closing long positions well ahead of the data release, profitably closed two longs and a short position once his targets had been met. Guru robepu was able to close out a long position at 1.3189 with a 23.26% gain just moments after the announcement.

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