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Archive for July, 2011

By W+W Research

(etoro Blog) U.S. President Barack Obama in his speech on Friday urged the Republicans and Democrats to work together to find a solution; however, investors were not buying any of it. The battered U.S. markets see no savior in sight—the Dow Jones industrial average lost 96.87 points, ending its worst week in a year. The S&P index was down 8.39 points and the Nasdaq was down 9.87 points. The United States will be unable to issue debt and borrow money to pay its obligations if Congress does not raise the debt ceiling by August 2. While a deal is in the works and may be signed off on by the August 2 deadline, there is a high chance that the U.S. could still lose its AAA credit rating, if the terms are not stringent enough to satisfy credit rating agencies.

Some investors see S&P downgrading the U.S. regardless of how the debt debate ends. Debt continued to be the market mover in the markets on both sides of the Atlantic, and volatility is at its highest since the earthquake in Japan. Volatility is expected to increase further as we get closer to the deadline.

Adding to the misery, the U.S. economy grew less than expected based on numbers released on Friday. GDP grew at a 1.3% annual rate in the second quarter after a 0.4% gain in the first quarter of 2011. Economists were expecting a 1.8% increase for the second quarter. Consumer sentiment data was also disappointing in the month of July.

The Canadian GDP came in a -0.3% in the month of May, which was the weakest in 2 years. In addition, the Raw Materials Price Index (RPMI) declined because of lower prices for fuels. The negative data out of Canada resulted in the Canadian Dollar ending lower against the US Dollar by 0.63% at end of trading on Friday.

Out of the United Kingdom, the total lending to individuals increased in June; however it was lower than the previous six-month average increase of £1.2 billion. Consumer credit increased and July mortgage approvals rose from 46.4K to 48.4K. We mentioned in our previous report that the British Pound is looking like a much better bet for traders because of lack of negative headline grabbing news out of the UK. The British Pound gained against the both the US Dollar and the Euro on Friday. The GBP/USD touched highs of 1.6460 during midday trading before settling at 1.6418 by the close of trading, a gain of 0.28% percent for the day.

The headline out of the Eurozone was Moody’s decision to put Spain’s credit rating on negative watch. Germany and France, the two strongest economies in the Eurozone had positive data releases on Friday. German Retail sales for June 2011 came in at 6.3% and French consumer spending increased by 1.1% in June. The EUR was up 0.26 % against the USD on Friday.

What did the top 50 traders do to protect their profits at the end of the week?

The EUR/USD pair is watched closely by economists and traders because it’s a case of weak vs. weaker, not strong vs. weak. Not surprisingly, for the month of July, EUR/USD has only declined -0.12%, whereas USD/CHF has declined -3.62%. In general, retail traders are more profitable when a pair is trading in a range. In our analysis, we found that the top 50 traders’ booked a ton of profits on EUR/USD with average trade duration of less than 2.5 hours in the last two days. More specifically, we found that 52% of all the profitable trades that were closed in the last two days were booked on the EUR/USD alone. Our top 50 traders don’t like taking weekend risk and prefer taking their profits off the table when they get a chance.

In addition, NZD/USD and USD/CHF were two other pairs where our top 50 traders booked profitable trades in large numbers and had average trade duration of less than 2.5 hours. While the bad news about the Dollar pushed the Aussie, Swiss Franc and GOLD to record highs against the Dollar, our top 50 traders don’t think those levels are sustainable and are comfortable trading the range bound EUR/USD.

What are expectations of the top 50 traders?

Now that we know how the top 50 traders locked in their profits, let’s look at the targets on their open positions for the coming week.

Copyright 2011 eToro Blog

This news item was republished from eToro Forex news website

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U.S. Deal Reached, Markets Rally Ahead of Vote

Posted by admin On July - 31 - 2011

By Barbara Zigah

(eToro Blog) Late last night, U.S. President Barack Obama announced to the U.S. and the world that the long awaited deal to raise the U.S. debt ceiling had finally been agreed to by U.S. legislature. Later, but before the August 2nd deadline, the deal will be voted on by both the U.S. Senate and the House of Representatives, but party leaders expect that to be a formality for the most part. News of the deal was well received in the Asian financial markets, with Wall Street stock futures all moving higher and the U.S. Dollar appreciating against most of its major counterparts.

While the President was not altogether happy with the deal which lacked the revenue-raising aspect the Democrats wanted, he assured the general public and financial markets that the plan would not “be a drag on a fragile economy.” As proposed, President Obama noted that the cuts would send the federal government’s spending to its lowest level since in more than 50 years. As the lawmakers packaged the 2-stage plan, the proposed deal would raise the U.S. debt ceiling by $2,400 billion, thus avoiding a default, and call for a decade’s worth of budget cuts to the tune of $2,800 billion. Already, $1,000 billion in budget cuts have been identified, and a special purpose committee will be established to identify the remainder of the cuts.

In response to the announcement, leaders throughout the globe praised the U.S. government for their aggressive actions; the Australian Treasurer, Wayne Swan, appeared cautiously optimistic that the deal would pass into law, noting that the world’s financial markets needed “that for global growth.”

In general, the markets were reassured by the news of the deal; in Asian trading, Wall Street’s stock futures were all higher, the DJIA and the S&P by 1.5% and the NASDAQ by 1.3%, while the U.S. Dollar was broadly higher. On the eToro trading floor, the EUR/USD pair was higher at 1.4409, and sentiment among traders was strongly bullish with 7 buyers to 1 seller.  The Dollar was also higher against the Swiss Franc, trading at 0.7939; sentiment among eToro traders of USD/CHF was slightly bullish, with 6 buyers to 4 sellers.

Copyright 2011 eToro Blog

This news item was republished from eToro Forex news website

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Volatile Week Kept Wall Street on Edge

Posted by admin On July - 31 - 2011

By David Becker

(eToro Blog) Wall Street sentiment slumped throughout the trading week as investors focused on the U.S. debt ceiling debate, and the (then) inability of the U.S. congress to come up with a plan that would rectify the increases needed to avoid default. Moody’s and S&P warned politicians that a potential downgrade would be imminent if an agreement which also reduced spending was not soon reached. Getting lost in the conversation was better-than-expected earnings from many U.S. companies and mixed economic data.

The stakes could not be higher; the triple A rating of the U.S. remains in jeopardy in spite of the tentative deal worked out late Sunday night in Washington as announced by U.S. President Barack Obama. The earlier uncertainty had lifted short term T-bills nearly 20 basis points from 1 basis point at the beginning of the week to nearly 21 basis points by Friday.

In economic data, the numbers were mixed, but the sluggish GDP data at the end of the week seemed to encapsulate the state of the U.S. economy. GDP rose at an annualized rate of 1.3% in April through June, while 1st quarter growth was revised down sharply to a 0.4% rate from the earlier estimate of a 1.9% gain, according to the Commerce Department. A key reason behind the downward revision in 1st quarter growth was that the inventory buildup by companies was less than initially estimated, while outlays by the federal government and consumers were also revised downward. Economists surveyed expected GDP to rise 1.8% in the 2nd quarter. The poor performance of the GDP data and the revision pushed U.S. yields lower. The majority of the decline came from a reduction in car production, while business investment rose above expectations.

From a manufacturing standpoint, both the report of Durable Goods orders, which was released at the beginning of the week, and the Chicago PMI, showed that manufacturing was growing at a slower pace than expected. The Chicago PMI slowed to a reading of 58.8 in July from 61.1 in June even as economists polled had expected a 61.9% reading. Indexes for production and new orders fell, while order backlogs bounced back into positive territory. The employment index dropped sharply, to 51.5 from 58.7.

On the jobs front, initial claims for unemployment fell 24,000 to 398,000 in the week ended July 23, according to the U.S. Labor Department.  The decline below the crucial 400,000 mark was the first move below this level in the past 14 weeks; when claims are below that level, economists generally think the economy is adding more jobs than it is shedding. The prior week’s claims figure was revised up slightly to 422,000.

The equity markets were on the defensive for the majority of last week with the S&P 500 Index dropping below the 50-day moving average, and testing the all important support level near the 200-day moving average near 1284. The bounce off of this crucial support level was key for weekly technical traders. The NASDAQ declined nearly 2% during the week which was better than the 3.5% decline of the S&P500. The tech heavy index declined below last week’s break out level of 2420, but held the 20-day moving average. The DJIA declined below the 50-day moving average, and support is seen near the 200-day moving average near 11,978.  In Asian trading,  news of the debt ceiling deal has sent Wall Street’s futures higher, however, with the S&P and DJIA both 1.5% higher and the NASDAQ up by 1.3%.

Copyright 2011 eToro Blog

This news item was republished from eToro Forex news website

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By Barbara Zigah

(eToro Blog) With just a few days left before the midnight EST August 2nd deadline is reached, the United States government continues to be at odds on raising the country’s $14.3 trillion debt ceiling. Failure to come to an agreement by Tuesday could lead to an unprecedented United States default, which would have serious global repercussions.

U.S. President Obama stated that “there is very little time left” on Saturday as Congress failed to arrive at a compromise with soothing words but no deal. Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell stated in a news conference with House Speaker John Boehner, that he was “confident and optimistic that we’re going to get an agreement in the very near future and resolve this crisis in the best interests of the American people.”

Nevertheless, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid rebutted McConnell’s comment stating “That’s not true,” after having met with Obama and House Democratic Party Leader Nancy Pelosi. Reid’s plan — which was voted down in the House earlier by 246 to 173 — would have the borrowing limit raised by $2.4 trillion while cutting government spending by the same amount.

An amended version of the Reid proposal is being considered in the Senate, which will convene at 12:00 PM (noon) EST on Sunday to move forward with a procedural vote on the bill. President Obama is hoping that the Reid proposal gets passed, allowing the government to continue operations until after the 2012 elections.

Reid stated late Saturday that, “There are negotiations going on at the White House to avert a catastrophic default on the nation’s debt. There are many elements to be finalized and there is still a distance to go”. Despite some optimism for a resolution, 43 Republican Senators — enough to prevail — sent Reid a letter saying they would vote against the bill.

With markets opening in the Far East considerably earlier than in New York, there really is “very little time left” for some progress to be made. After Friday’s dismal U.S. Advance GDP number, financial markets will be closely monitoring any improvement in the debt ceiling gridlock. Sunday morning’s vote, which will take place in just a few hours, could end the stalemate.

Copyright 2011 eToro Blog

This news item was republished from eToro Forex news website

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Tips on trading the GBP/USD from eToro Top 50 traders’

Posted by admin On July - 29 - 2011

By W+W Research

(eToro Blog) The manner in which the U.S. Congress is dealing with the U.S. debt debacle is wreaking havoc on the image of the United States to foreign investors, and is weakening the value of the U.S. Dollar. The House of Representatives on Thursday pushed back a scheduled vote on a Republican bill that would have lifted the U.S. debt ceiling. This tells us that we are nowhere near a resolution, and next week will be even more dramatic. The proposed bill raises the debt ceiling in two stages, and slashes about $917 billion in spending over ten years.

Despite the negative sentiment coming out of Washington D.C. there were two positive developments that came out of the U.S. economic data. Jobless claims fell to 398K, which was better than 413K forecasted by economists. Pending home sales also beat negative forecasts by rising 2.4 percent in the month of June. Elsewhere, the data out of Europe was mixed. German unemployment for June came in at -11K compared to the previous month’s -8K. In the UK, we saw the consumer confidence come in at -30. The UK CBI realized sales fell to -5 in June from -2 in May. In other economic news, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand hinted that it may raise rates by 50 basis points at its next meeting in September. The RBNZ lowered the rate to 2.5% in February of this year due to a devastating earthquake. Since then, New Zealand has seen improved economic conditions.

Traders have followed the plight of the EURO and USD anxiously for the last couple of weeks. These two currencies are being followed not only for trading ideas, but mainly because these currencies represent the biggest economies of the world. What happens to these two currencies will affect the world’s economy in a very profound way. Economists and traders are now heaping praises on the British Pound as a trading instrument because even though it remains so close physically to the European debt crisis, the GBP has stayed out of the limelight. Even though the UK economy is not rosy, the British Pound is the lesser evil at this time.

We decided to study the trading activity of the GBP/USD among the top 50 traders’ on eToro’s Open Book. We separated the top 50 trader group by their location and noticed some interesting differences between European and non-European traders within the elite top 50.

How the top 50 traders’ traded the GBP/USD this week?

Among top 50 traders, 65% of European traders are bullish on GBP/USD with an average profit target of 1.6410. Based on this information, it looks like European traders think the UK economy is immune from the ongoing Greece debt crisis, and are hoping for a better GDP number tomorrow. On the other hand, non-European traders are predominantly bearish on GBP/USD with 89% holding short positions with an average profit target of 1.6256. This tells us that non-European traders think the Greece crisis will overflow into the UK economy.

What other pairs did the top 50 traders’ trade this week?

We noticed that the top 50 traders as a whole added more exposure to NZD/USD compared to the previous two days. This can most likely be accounted for by the fact that the RBNZ left interest rate unchanged. AUD/USD was also heavily traded by this group which is explained by the recent highs.

Copyright 2011 eToro Blog

This news item was republished from eToro Forex news website

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By Barbara Zigah

(eToro Blog) The Swiss Franc made yet another all time high against the Greenback on Thursday, with USD/CHF dipping below the 0.8000 level and trading at 0.7988. The rate has made new all time lows in the past four sessions with asset flows in the currency market favoring “safe haven” investments.EUR/CHF also traded sharply lower, with the rate shedding a full figure trading down to 1.1422, just a few pips from its all time high set on July 10th of 1.1403.

Both the Euro and the U.S. Dollar have been under considerable pressure due to the uncertainty with the European financial crisis and the impasse on raising the debt ceiling in the United States.Wednesday saw the release of the KOF Economic Barometer, a Swiss index based on 12 economic indicators. The indicator measures the performance expected for the Swiss economy in the next six months and fell to 2.04 from 2.23, its biggest drop since 2009. The market consensus for the release was 2.10 – 2.12.

With a rise of nine percent against the U.S. Dollar and seven percent against the Euro since January, the strength of the Swiss Franc will eventually cause the Swiss economy to slow down as Swiss exports become less competitive in the world market.

Swiss companies are already feeling the downturn in profits caused by the higher Franc. Companies such as pharmaceutical giant Roche, chemical producer Clariant and industry supplier Lonza have all seen a drop in profits. Swiss banks have also been affected.

UBS on Tuesday reported its net profit for the first quarter had dropped to 1B CHF compared to last year’s 2B, on a 22 percent decrease in revenues, due in large part to the strength of the Swiss Franc.

Despite Swiss banks making less money, the Swiss banking sector has very little direct exposure to the Greek sovereign debt crisis, according to a study by the Swiss National Bank. Nevertheless, Swiss banks will undoubtedly be affected if the European financial system becomes destabilized. Also, Switzerland has funded part of the loans extended by the IMF to Greece.

While a banking crisis may affect Swiss banks, the Swiss Franc in all probability will continue strengthening against the Euro and the U.S. Dollar. With the level of fiscal instability in both the U.S. and EU economies, a slowdown in the Swiss economy will only marginally affect the exchange rate against the Euro and Greenback. Until the United States addresses its massive debt and the Eurozone resolves its financial crisis, the Swiss Franc will continue to be favored as a safe haven currency.

Copyright 2011 eToro Blog

This news item was republished from eToro Forex news website

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Wall Street Under A Cloud Of Uncertainty

Posted by admin On July - 29 - 2011

By David Becker

(eToro Blog) Equity markets in the US were mixed, as a cloud of uncertainty continued to hang over the market place.  The traction equities received was on the back of better than expected jobs and housing data released in the US yesterday.

Politicians in Washington continued to try to create a bill that would allow the US to raise its debt ceiling, and rumors where circling that the House had enough votes to pass their plan.  Unfortunately, the Senate has already warned that the plan the House is floating will not pass.  Senate majority leader Harry Reid and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell are exploring ways to bridge the gaps between the House and Senate bills and craft an alternative that can pass both chambers by Aug. 2

Wall Street tightens are becoming nervous and according to CNBC sent a letter to every member of congress to express their concern.   The letter, signed by Lloyd Blankfein of Goldman Sachs,, Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan Chase and a slew of other financial heavyweights, did not endorse a specific proposal to raise the debt ceiling, but said, “We write to you today to urge you to act this week to reach an agreement that will ensure that our Nation continues to meet all of its financial obligations, and that will entail meaningful and concrete steps to put our Nation on a sound fiscal footing.”

The letter went on to state that the current economic recovery remains very fragile and a default on US  obligations, or a downgrade of America’s credit rating, would be a tremendous blow to business and investor confidence.

In economic news, investors received the first bit of good news received during the week.  Both housing data and employment data were better than expected. Jobless claims fell by 24,000 to 398,000 in the week ended July 23, according to the Labor Department. The prior week’s claims figure was revised to 422,000, up from an originally reported 418,000. The number of new claims fell below 400,000 for the first time in the past 3.5 months. Economists surveyed had forecast claims to remain unchanged.  The four-week moving average of claims, also fell last week, by 8,500 to 413,750.

In the housing sector pending home sales increased by  2.4 percent which followed an 8.2 percent May gain, according to the National Association of Realtors. Economists forecast a 2 percent drop.  Pending sales rose 17 percent from June 2010.  The major concern from the NAR is that contracts are being canceled, based on the confidence of American consumers.

On the earnings front, Exxon Mobil Corp.’s second-quarter profit jumped 41% as the company benefited from high oil prices and improved refining and marketing results.  Exxon reported a profit of $10.68 billion, or $2.18 a share, up from $7.56 billion, or $1.61 a share, a year earlier. The company missed analysts earnings expectations of $2.33 per share due to weaker than anticipated results in both its international production and exploration business and its refining and marketing arm.  The declined in XOM, put pressure on the entire energy sector.

The S&P 500 Index remained below the 50-day moving average, after breaking through that support level on Wednesday.  Support is seen near the 1300 level and then the 200-day moving average near 1284.  Resistance on the large cap index is seen near 1345 and 1355.

The Nasdaq recouped some of Wednesday losses and the meek rally brought the tech heavy index back above the 20-day moving average.  Support is now seen near the 50-day moving average at 2318.  Resistance is seen near the recent highs at 2420 and 2435.

Copyright 2011 eToro Blog

This news item was republished from eToro Forex news website

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Greenback Mixed Ahead of GDP

Posted by admin On July - 28 - 2011

By Barbara Zigah

(eToro Blog) The U.S. Dollar was mixed against the other major currencies in early trading in the Far East on Friday. The Greenback was higher against the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian Dollars and Sterling while declining marginally against the Euro, Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen.Markets are generally quiet ahead of U.S. Advance GDP and other important economic data set to be released later today.

The consensus for the release is expected to show the U.S. economy expanding at a rate of +1.7 percent annualized, with the previous number upwardly revised from +1.8 percent to +1.9%.Economic data last week indicated improved consumer confidence, lower Durable Goods orders and a drop in the Initial Jobless Claims number. Tuesday saw the CB Consumer Confidence survey rise to 59.5 from a previous 57.6 with the market expecting 57.1. Durable Goods Orders, out on Wednesday, showed a monthly drop of -2.1%, versus an expected increase of +0.4%, while Thursday’s Initial Jobless Claims dropped to 398K from 422K the previous week.

The Greenback has been weak against most of the majors, making new lows recently against the Canadian Dollar, the Japanese Yen, the Australian and the New Zealand Dollars in large part due to the inability of U.S. lawmakers to come to an agreement on raising the debt ceiling above the $14.3 trillion debt limit by August 3rd.

Several plans, including a plan proposed by a bipartisan team of Senators have already been rejected. The latest plan to cut federal spending and raise the debt ceiling was presented by Speaker of the House John Boehner on Thursday.

The voting on the measure was called off by House leaders for failing to obtain the necessary Republican votes to pass late Thursday. A meeting was scheduled for Friday morning of the full House Republican conference.

Friday’s action could be volatile in the currency markets, depending on the GDP number. If the number comes out as expected or better, the market could take the Greenback substantially higher. In addition, any progress on the debt ceiling in Washington could boost the U.S. Dollar even further.

A lower than expected number, on the other hand could take the Greenback down however, the downside may be limited since the Greenback has already fallen considerably against some currencies this week.

Given the economic numbers released prior to the GDP release, such as Pending Home Sales which showed an increase of +2.4% in June, the likelihood of an improving U.S. economy would considerably improve the global economic outlook.

Copyright 2011 eToro Blog

This news item was republished from eToro Forex news website

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Yen Flat Against The Dollar As BoJ Awaits In Sidelines

Posted by admin On July - 28 - 2011

By Barbara Zigah

The Japanese Yen did not make a new recent high versus the U.S. Dollar on Thursday, but USD/JPY then made further headway in its prevailing downward trend early in Friday’s session. The new recent Friday low for USD/JPY at the 77.47 level came without any confirmed intervention by the Bank of Japan. This fact worried bullish traders who were counting on the central bank making an appearance after the notable verbal intervention by Japanese finance officials earlier this week.

Trading in USD/JPY also continued to react to investor concerns over the U.S. debt ceiling crisis, as the August 3rd deadline approaches without a viable plan yet on the table. U.S. stocks sustained further losses in the wake of U.S. debt downgrade warnings from both Moody’s and Standard and Poor’s.

Furthermore, that fresh early Friday low was the firmest the Yen had traded at since USD/JPY fell to its all time low of 76.41 seen earlier this year on March 17th. Despite that, USD/JPY sentiment is still overwhelmingly bullish, although both the bulls and the bears seem to have become more extreme in their stance.

Nevertheless, technical analysts note that the latest low point in USD/JPY was confirmed by a fresh low in the 14-day Relative Strength Index. The indicator has now pushed into oversold territory to read at the 26 level, but most seasoned traders would still like to see bullish price/RSI divergence at oversold levels before attempting to call a bottom for the rate.

Some support for the beleaguered Greenback emerged after the release of some rather favorable data from the U.S. job and housing sectors on Thursday. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims fell below the 400K level to come in at 398K versus the 413K expected, while Pending Home Sales rose by 2.4% compared with the -1.5% drop anticipated.

The slew of Japanese data out in Friday’s Asian session was not so rosy, with Household Spending falling by -4.2% compared with the -2.2% consensus, National Core CPI rising by 0.4% versus the 0.5% expected and Preliminary Industrial Production rising by only 3.9% against the 4.6% anticipated.  The Unemployment Rate also rose a tick to 4.6%, as expected, but Tokyo Core CPI firmed by 0.4% compared with the 0.2% rise the market was looking for.

Looking forward, Japanese Housing Starts (4.9%) is out next, while Friday’s U.S. data includes the key Advance GDP number (1.7%), plus the Advance GDP Price Index (2.0%), the Employment Cost Index (0.5%), the Chicago PMI (60.1), the Revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey (64.1), and Revised University of Michigan Inflation Expectations (last 3.4%).

Copyright 2011 eToro Blog

This news item was republished from eToro Forex news website

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A U.S. Downgrade, the Worst Case Scenario

Posted by admin On July - 28 - 2011

By Barbara Zigah

(eToro Blog) With only a handful of days left until the August 2nd deadline, investors are appropriately worried about two things: the debt ceiling debacle and the threat of a ratings downgrade. Most analysts don’t believe that American politicians will (grand) stand in the way of doing the right thing in the short term, i.e. getting the debt ceiling raised, thus avoiding a debt default. Some bookmakers believe that there’s a near zero chance that a default is imminent, but even if it occurs, most analysts agree that at worst it will last for a day or so.

On the other hand, it’s about even money for a ratings downgrade, and the repercussions of that will be much longer lasting. Certainly, analysts are exceedingly concerned that U.S. lawmakers won’t act appropriately in the medium to long term and take a serious whack at fiscal reform. According to Michael McKenzie, the Financial Times’ U.S. market correspondent, U.S. politicians will probably use slight of hand to get a deal cut to raise the debt ceiling, but if it isn’t accompanied by fundamental reform, a downgrade is likely.

Most analysts agree that if Moody’s, S&P or Fitch ratings downgrade is forthcoming it will be that – the absence of fundamental fiscal reform – which will be the reason for it, not the missing of the debt deadline, as irresponsible as that would be.

And a ratings downgrade would have immediate and immeasurable effects. Basically, if the U.S.’s rating is notched down to AA, then everything below that rating also gets notched down. And anything backed by U.S. Treasuries – like the FDIC, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, etc., all of those get downgraded, too.

But it’s not just government-sponsored entities, it’s also global governments, central banks, domestic banks, insurance companies, pension funds, mutual funds, individual investors – it’s any entity that holds U.S. assets which will suffer from the downgrade.  The dominoes would begin to topple, one by one, as all of those entities scramble to shore up their now diminished holdings.  Michael McKenzie likens it to the financial crisis of 2008; as he puts it, “the deleveraging event would ripple out across the financial markets.”

A debt default would be embarrassingly painful, but the pain would be short-lived. The aftermath of a ratings downgrade, however, would be even more painful, more wide-spread, and much more enduring.

Copyright 2011 eToro Blog

This news item was republished from eToro Forex news website

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